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Analysis, portfolio strategies and the psychology of money, in plain language.

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The math for a rate cut
Macro & Metals

The math for a rate cut

US03M remains above the cut threshold, while liquidity is already signaling something different.

Cristian ChifoiSeptember 6, 2026
What links the $40 trillion debt milestone to the Fed's balance sheet
Macro & Metals

What links the $40 trillion debt milestone to the Fed's balance sheet

How Fed liquidity, oil and the $40T debt milestone point to the same macro shift

Cristian ChifoiAugust 19, 2026
A Weak Fall, Not a Recession
Macro & Metals

A Weak Fall, Not a Recession

Why weakness this fall doesn’t necessarily mean a recession and which macro signals actually matter

Cristian ChifoiJuly 29, 2026