You can be right about a company and still lose money on it.

Three editions, one idea that costs plenty of people money: valuing a company and buying it are two different decisions. One looks ahead. The other takes patience.

June 19, 2026 · 8 min read

Key takeaways

A return that already happened guarantees nothing about the next one. Bitcoin miners were up more than 50% while Bitcoin and Ethereum were falling.
The market pays for what a company changes in the future, not for what it collected last year.
A company you believe in is not a buy order. Price and timing carry as much weight as the thesis.
Discipline beats catching the perfect bottom. You separate conviction from the moment you press the button.

Three emails, three subjects that looked unrelated. Underneath them, the same question: how the price of an asset forms, and when you buy it.

The market often treats the two as one. That confusion is among the most expensive mistakes an investor makes.

The week tied three examples together, from the Bitcoin miners to SpaceX, around a single idea.

Definition

Asymmetry

The ratio between what you stand to gain and what you put at risk. Good asymmetry means a lot of upside and little downside. You find it in ignored assets far more often than in the ones that just flew.

Monday · June 15

What has already run is not where the asymmetry sits

The week opened with a simple question. Where the return actually goes.

Since February 2026, the Bitcoin mining stocks, RIOT and MARA, were up more than 50%. Bitcoin and Ethereum, over the same stretch, were falling. Exactly the other way around.

A return that already happened guarantees nothing about the next one.

That does not make the miners a buy. The asset that just went up draws the most eyes exactly when the move is already spent. Too late, usually.

The miners are, in essence, a leveraged bet on the price of Bitcoin. When it works, they work harder. Only you notice them after they have run, not before.

Ethereum was sitting at multi-year lows against Bitcoin. Ignored, after a long decline. That is usually where the asymmetry hides: not in what went up, but in what got left behind.

+50%How much the miners gained since February, while Bitcoin and Ethereum were falling.

Since February 1, 2026, the mining stocks ran hard. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell.

Ethereum on a log scale, near $1.7k, 64% below the 2025 peak. The asset left behind.

Wednesday · June 17

The market prices the future, not today's revenue

Midweek, the subject was valuation.

Common sense says a company with bigger revenue should be worth more. The market does not work that way. Not at all.

The market pays for how much a company will change the future, not for how much of the past it repeats.

The clearest example sits inside a single industry. Since 2019, Tesla re-rated almost 20 times over. Volkswagen, across the same years, fell, even though it books several times Tesla's revenue.

The difference does not come from the cars sold last year. It comes from what the market believes the two companies will be a decade from now.

The same logic explains the multiples on a SpaceX or a Tesla. And why crypto assets cannot be priced only on how much they get used today. You pay for a future, with the risk that the future never shows up.

×20How many times Tesla re-rated since 2019, while Volkswagen fell.

Since 2019, Tesla re-rated roughly 20 times over. Volkswagen stayed far behind.

What the market pays for each dollar of annual revenue: from 15 cents to 139 dollars.

Friday · June 19

Conviction in an asset is not a buy order

The week closed on the difference between a good company and a good trade.

After the SpaceX listing and a jump of some 40% in a few days, plenty of people had already booked the win in their heads. A little early.

You can believe in a company's potential and still refuse to buy it at a hype price.

SpaceX is already the sixth largest company in the world, around 2.6 trillion. To reach first place it would have to double. A 2x is modest for anyone used to big moves.

History has examples that sting. Coinbase listed in 2021, in full euphoria, above 340 dollars. A year later it was 90% lower. And today, five years on, it still trades at half the listing price.

The company was not bad. The entry price was. That is the whole difference between a good business and a good trade.

-90%Coinbase's fall in the year after listing. Today, still at half the listing price.

SpaceX is already the sixth largest company in the world. To be first, it would have to double.

Coinbase, after the 2021 listing: minus 90% the following year and years below the listing price.

Conclusions

Out of the three editions, a single decision reflex remains.

Value on the future, not on the past. And do not mix a return that is already spent with real asymmetry, or conviction with the right moment to buy.

What matters is not catching the perfect bottom. It is knowing what you buy and why. That is all.

Summary

A return that already happened guarantees nothing about the next one. Bitcoin miners were up more than 50% while Bitcoin and Ethereum were falling.
The market pays for what a company changes in the future, not for what it collected last year.
A company you believe in is not a buy order. Price and timing carry as much weight as the thesis.
Discipline beats catching the perfect bottom. You separate conviction from the moment you press the button.

You can be right about a company and still lose money on it

Keep reading

2027 is THE YEAR

The consensus wants an October bottom. A green August says otherwise

The math for a rate cut