Ichimoku flagged the altcoin reversal. 2027 is next

The Liquidity Map · Crypto report

Ichimoku flagged the altcoin reversal. 2027 is next

This week, inflation hit altcoins harder than Bitcoin.

I'm watching the same chart I've followed for three months: where the reversal area is and what 2027 brings.

October 19th, 2026 · 5 min read

Key takeaways

TOTALES is still inside the Ichimoku cloud. The cloud cross is expected in 2027.
2027 is the third year of the presidential cycle, historically the strongest for the S&P?.
I'm adding to altcoins? now, in stages.

This week was a noisy one, so today I tie together my three posts on this chart, from August until now.

Definition

TOTALES

The market capitalization of the whole crypto market, excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins. It's not the price of one coin and doesn't show how each altcoin moves.

This week

Altcoins took the bigger CPI hit

US CPI came in hotter than expected, and the Fed? has already hiked once.

Since October 6th, the day of the S&P high, Bitcoin has fallen 4.8% and Ethereum 10.1%, while Cardano, Sui and Hedera lost more than 16% each and NEAR stayed roughly flat.

Most altcoins fell more than twice as much as Bitcoin.

That's the noise part.

-17.3%Cardano, from October 6th to October 17th.

My chart shows something else.

Ichimoku

The reversal area is here, but the cloud hasn't been broken

In the first post, on August 2nd, I put TOTALES on the weekly chart.

In every bear market?, once the Ichimoku cloud starts to thicken, the reversal is close, and I marked three such reversal areas: 2019, 2023 and 2026.

I also wrote then that a sharp price move was coming: first a rally, then another hard correction. That's what happened. TOTALES rose from around $600 billion toward the upper edge of the cloud, then started to correct.

I'm watching for the cloud cross, flagged for 2027.

When it appears, I'll have a hint about what comes next.

$740-917bnThe cloud boundaries on October 15th. TOTALES, at $778.74 billion, was inside.

TOTALES, weekly chart with the Ichimoku cloud and RSI, on October 15th.

The second part of the chart is the RSI.

RSI

Three pushes, but the pace alternates

On August 26th I added the count on the RSI, where I see three pushes at every cycle top and every cycle low.

In 2021, the three pushes toward the top came fast, while in 2022 those toward the low came slowly. In 2025, those toward the top came slowly, so for the 2026 low I expect them to come fast.

The market doesn't repeat its structure, but it loves alternation.

The third push on the RSI should come after October, not before.

I also have a shorter count of 280 days, which starts at the beginning of a correction, and that correction could bring back good entry prices for 2027.

52.55Weekly RSI on October 15th, in the middle of its range.

TOTALES across three cycles: the reversal areas, the big moves and the three pushes on the RSI.

That leaves the question of why 2027.

2027

Why 2027 stands apart

2027 is the third year of the US presidential term and the year that leads into the next shmita cycle, in 2028.

On the S&P, year 3 has been the best of the cycle.

That's an equity statistic, not a crypto one, because there isn't enough crypto history to run the same math. The stat guarantees nothing, but it shows why I don't want to get lost in the 2026 noise.

Year in cycle	S&P average	Up years
Year 1	+7.0%	15 of 25
Year 2 (midterm)	+3.3%	13 of 24
Year 3	+14.0%	19 of 24
Year 4 (election)	+8.1%	19 of 25

S&P 500, calendar-year return, 1928-2025, grouped by the year in the US presidential cycle.

+14%The S&P average in year 3 of the cycle, versus the 8.1% average across all years.

That's where the positioning starts.

How we're positioned

I've started adding to altcoins, in stages, and that's what has changed since October 12th, when I was holding off on them.

I'll exit early, as I did in 2024, and I'm not setting an exit price because I'm watching the structure.

Conclusions

The post-CPI drop doesn't change the structure on TOTALES, and the target is still 2027.

What to watch this week

Does TOTALES stay inside the cloud or leave it?
Do altcoins get back above their October 6th levels?

Ichimoku flagged the altcoin reversal. 2027 is next

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