The weak season for the crypto market is over

The Liquidity Map · Crypto report

The weak season for the crypto market is over

The weak altcoin season I have described since 2023 has already played out.

Three charts show where the Chainlink, Avalanche and Hedera rallies stalled.

I watch three signs of returning liquidity ahead of the next season.

October 12th, 2026 · 4 min read

Key takeaways

The first part of the halfcoin theory held for Chainlink and Avalanche, but only partly for Hedera.
The conditions for a classic altseason were not met, but the unusual scenario from July 2025 played out.
The indicators have recovered in 2026, but do not yet show a broad altcoin? season.
The Fed? balance sheet started growing again in December 2025, but only slightly.
The 2026 energy crisis tests a thesis I have been repeating since 2022.

I have discussed the halfcoin season for three years.

Since July 2025, I have also described a weak finish for Ethereum and altcoins.

I never delete tweets, so you can check what I said and when.

Definition

OTHERS.D

The market share of coins outside the top ten within the index universe. A rise means this segment is gaining relative ground, not that every coin is rising in dollar terms.

The scenario

What I said in July 2025 has happened

My scenario: Ethereum sets a modest new high near $5,000, then retreats.

It falls below $2,000 by the second quarter of 2026, maybe even toward $1,200-$1,300.

Bitcoin stays dominant and capital does not rotate into altcoins.

Ethereum peaked on August 24th, 2025, at $4,953.73.

On June 6th, 2026, it hit $1,507, 69.6% lower: under $2,000, but short of $1,200-$1,300.

In a classic altseason, four conditions coincide.

Bitcoin passes $160,000, amid full-blown euphoria.

Bitcoin dominance? rises sharply, then falls toward 40%.

Ethereum rises to $7,000-$9,000.

OTHERS.D and the copper/gold ratio take off.

I summarized all of this on April 2nd.

I held crypto positions, but also kept about 30% in cash.

At the start of every seasonally weak stretch for Bitcoin, I posted the same message: get ready for pullbacks and cheaper entries.

I posted it on March 10th, 2024. Bitcoin then fell 33.4%, from $73,750 to $49,121, on August 5th.

I posted it again on December 9th, 2024. Then, from the $126,198 high, it fell 36.1% by November 21st, 2025.

Each time, I took big profits.

On March 13th, 2026, I revisited the scenario and explained my first Ethereum purchase.

I have already started adding Ethereum alongside strong altcoins in anticipation of this scenario.

$126,198Bitcoin's high of October 6th, 2025, below the $160,000 mark of a classic altseason.

Halfcoin

The weak season is already behind us

My 2023 theory says the last cycle’s major coins rebound to the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci? zone, then stall.

I explained it at length on September 21st.

Chainlink climbed to $30.81 in December 2024, just under the 0.786 level of $31.89.

It was my second-largest position, after Bitcoin.

On October 15th, 2025, I explained that I had sold 40% of the position, in the 0.786-0.618 zone.

Avalanche stopped in March 2024 at $65.25, between 0.618 and 0.786.

Hedera passed 0.786 in January 2025, but stopped at $0.40, under its 2021 high of $0.57.

Hedera does not fully fit the pattern.

Then all three fell to lows in 2026.

Other coins stopped lower, between 0.386 and 0.5.

Next, I am watching for the monster season.

I see it in 2027-2028, before the shmita that starts in September 2028.

It is a timing hypothesis and could be wrong.

0 of 3Coins that have returned to their 2021 high.

Indicators

What tells me a new liquidity cycle is starting

I watch three things: OTHERS.D, Bitcoin dominance and the copper/gold ratio.

On February 12th I posted the OTHERS.D chart with a message about patience.

I was quoting a post: the weekly Bollinger Bands on Bitcoin dominance were the tightest since 2017.

The EMA ribbons were rolling over for the first time since the first quarter of 2021.

Bitcoin dominance has to rise sharply, then fall sharply.

In 2022 it was at the bottom, and in 2019 near the top of its range, like now.

On OTHERS.D, the advances in 2017 and 2020-2021 show altcoins gaining market share.

The January 2022 peak was followed by almost four years of decline into December 2025, interrupted by rebounds.

The share now stands at 8.5%, against 19.3% at that peak.

Copper/gold tells a different story: the industrial metal's strength relative to gold.

I also marked the 2011 and 2013 Bitcoin cycles, alongside altcoin examples from 2017 and 2020-2021.

The recent rebound leaves the ratio 25% below its May 2024 high.

The comparison helps, but copper/gold does not directly measure money entering crypto.

59%Bitcoin dominance on October 10th.

History available since 2014. Last completed week: October 4th, 2026.

The Fed

The Fed balance sheet has been rising since December 2025

Since 2022 I have been talking about a crisis that could expand the Fed balance sheet again.

I wrote about it again on July 4th, 2025: it could be energy, solar storms or a combination.

Back then, the balance sheet had been shrinking for over three years.

The Fed stopped shrinking its balance sheet on December 1st, 2025.

On December 12th it started buying Treasury bills, to keep bank reserves ample.

It does not call it QE.

The balance sheet is up 3.2% from its December 3rd, 2025 low.

The current-cycle chart shows the 27.1% decline from the April 2022 peak to the December 2025 low.

The direction has changed, but the recovery is still small compared with that decline.

Since late February, the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil higher.

The 10-year Treasury yield? hit 5.31% on October 5th, its highest in two years.

My hypothesis: high yields tighten liquidity?, and the Fed will have to buy more.

+44%How much Brent has risen, from $72.48 on February 27th to $104.72 on October 9th.

How we are positioned

The October 5th plan stands.

I started with the majors: Bitcoin in 2022, Ethereum this year.

Altcoins come later, and I pick them carefully.

We add on weakness, especially from November through January.

Conclusions

The monster season arrives with liquidity, not with a date on the calendar.

Until then, stay patient and selective.

What to watch this week

Does Bitcoin dominance start to fall?
Does the Fed balance sheet keep rising?
Does the copper/gold ratio climb toward its May 2024 high?

The weak season for the crypto market is over

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