The cycle that looks like no other

The Liquidity Map · Crypto report

The cycle that looks like no other

Four signs missing from this cycle, a personal position I have held since 2023, and the copper-gold ratio, the macro signal only now showing its first signs of a turn.

July 27, 2026 · 9 min read

Key takeaways

This cycle carries four missing signs compared to every prior one: no full Bitcoin euphoria, no real breakdown in its dominance, Ethereum never left its bear market range, and altcoins have stayed far behind.
Since the accumulation started, in October 2023, TOTAL3, the altcoin market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has stayed well below Bitcoin. That gap, not any single coin's price, is the core of the thesis.
The copper-gold ratio, a macro signal I watch, stayed compressed for unusually long and is only now showing the first signs of a turn.
LINK is a personal position I have held since 2023: bought low, partly sold high at the 2024 targets, and re-accumulated now, in the same zone.
Bitcoin and Ethereum stay on the same accumulation lines from February. My Ethereum thesis points to an expansion much further out in time, not a price for today.

Usually, a market cycle reads easily: euphoria, top, crash, then quiet accumulation.

I track four signs that, this time, are simply missing. That changes the whole calculation.

This is not a report about where to enter tomorrow.

It is about the big picture, the one you only see by comparing this cycle to every one before it, coin by coin and signal by signal.

Definition

Altcoin Supercycle

The term I use for my hypothesis: because the accumulation phase on altcoins has lasted unusually long, the outperformance period that follows could stretch across two cycles, not one. It remains a thesis. Not a certainty, as I say myself.

The atypical cycle

Four signs that are missing

I compare this cycle to every prior one and find four differences.

Bitcoin never had a full euphoria, with a late-cycle expansion, the way it has every time before. Its dominance never had a real breakdown, the 30-40 percent kind seen in the past.

Ethereum never left its bear market range, with only a short, shallow high in the summer of 2025.

And altcoin dominance has stayed low, while a fourth sign, the copper-to-gold ratio, stayed compressed far longer than in past cycles.

Four signs that should have already shown up. None of them have yet.

That is why I call this hypothesis the Altcoin Supercycle.

Not as a promise, but as an observation: if accumulation lasted this long, unusually long compared to any prior cycle, the outperformance period that follows could stretch over more time, not just a few months.

I state clearly it is a thesis, not a certainty, and that things could change.

But the structure so far confirms, point by point, the hypothesis I have held since 2023.

There is one more piece in the background: the CLARITY Act, the US bill that would clarify crypto market rules, has already passed the House and the Senate Banking Committee and is awaiting a final Senate vote. I see it as another sign this phase of the market is maturing, not as a guarantee.

4 signsBitcoin euphoria, a dominance breakdown, Ethereum leaving its range, a copper-gold recovery. All four are still missing, unlike any prior cycle.

The clearest place to see this difference is in how altcoins moved against Bitcoin.

The divergence

Altcoins stayed far behind

The simplest way to track this is TOTAL3: the total crypto market cap, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum.

It is an index for the real health of altcoins, beyond Bitcoin's own move.

I started accumulating altcoins in October 2023, including LINK.

Since then, the gap between Bitcoin and the rest of the market has kept widening, not closing, unlike what usually happens by the middle of a cycle.

It is not one coin's price that matters here. It is how wide the gap got.

In practice, this means a classic cycle, where altcoins quickly close the gap against Bitcoin, simply has not happened this time.

The window for a catch-up stays open, but it has not fired yet.

And if accumulation lasted this long, unusually long, my thesis is that the move that follows, if it comes, could match the wait.

+137% vs +101%Growth since October 2023. Bitcoin +137%, TOTAL3, crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, only +101%. The gap widened, it did not close.

Percentage growth since October 2023, log scale, real weekly TradingView data. TOTAL3 stayed consistently below Bitcoin.

One of the macro signals behind this thesis is a ratio few people watch: copper versus gold.

The macro signal

Copper versus gold, the ratio only now moving

I read the ratio between copper's price and gold's price as a thermometer of risk appetite in the big markets.

Copper rises when the economy is expected to grow, gold rises out of fear. The ratio between them tells you which one dominates.

In every prior cycle, this ratio recovered alongside the return of risk appetite in capital markets, crypto included.

This time, it stayed compressed far longer than usual, and only recently started showing the first signs of a turn.

A signal few people watch, but one that has been missing all cycle.

It is no coincidence.

This delayed signal overlaps with the delay on altcoins.

Both tell the same story: risk appetite in the big markets has not returned as strongly as in past cycles yet.

I keep this on my radar exactly because, when the copper-gold ratio does recover consistently, it usually coincides with the periods when risk assets, altcoins included, perform best.

That is why I think the hard part is behind: if this signal keeps recovering, my expectation is that altcoins will not suffer as much as they did this past season, and the crypto phenomenon overall will gain momentum.

0.00155The copper-gold ratio, near its lowest in this form in several years. It stayed compressed far longer than in past cycles, with only a recent sign of a turn.

The copper-gold ratio, since 2018. In every prior cycle it recovered alongside risk appetite. This time it stayed compressed far longer, with only a recent turn.

With the macro picture clear, here is what a concrete position, held for years, looks like: LINK.

LINK

A personal position, held since 2023

LINK is one of my longest-held positions.

I bought it under 8 dollars, in a zone the coin kept returning to over the years, sold part of it at the 2024 targets, then waited.

Now, the price has returned to the same zone, and I have started re-accumulating.

Fundamentally, the reason I hold it long term has not changed: the project works with major institutions, including the SWIFT payment network, which gives it real utility, not just speculative appeal.

Bought low, partly sold high, re-accumulated low again. The same zone, three times over.

Not a guarantee.

It is the kind of discipline I talk about constantly: enter early, take profit early on part of the position, and stay ready to re-enter if price returns to your zone.

My long-term conviction stays unchanged: I believe LINK can reach new all-time highs in the next cycle, though, like any long-term target, it remains a thesis, not a promise.

Re-accumulatingI bought LINK low, partly sold at the 2024 targets, and started re-accumulating again, in the same price zone.

LINK, since 2021, log scale. The $5-8 zone was bought, then partly sold at the 2024 and 2025 highs, and is now being re-accumulated.

Above all of this, the underlying levels on Bitcoin and its proxy stay unchanged.

Bitcoin and MicroStrategy

The same lines, nothing new to add

On Bitcoin, nothing has changed from what I have said since February: below 67,000 dollars stays the accumulation zone.

Not new levels. Just the same line, retested by today's price.

In parallel, I started a new allocation into MicroStrategy, the company with the largest Bitcoin reserve in the world, in the 80-90 dollar zone per share.

It is a Bitcoin proxy, so it amplifies the move in either direction.

The number of listed companies acting as crypto proxies, through shares or ETN-style instruments, has grown a lot since 2020. MicroStrategy remains one of the most watched examples.

Not every week needs new levels. Sometimes it just retests the old ones.

On MicroStrategy, the allocation was built both spot and through a leveraged instrument, which means invalidation and sizing matter as much as the entry itself.

The rest of the technical detail, window by window, stays a subject for community updates.

Here, only the big picture matters: both references stay valid, no change of thesis.

$67,000 · $80-90The accumulation line on Bitcoin, unchanged since February, and the zone where I started the new MicroStrategy allocation, a Bitcoin proxy.

Bitcoin, log scale. Below 67,000 dollars stays the accumulation zone, watched for months.

MicroStrategy, log scale. The 80-90 dollar zone per share, where the new allocation started.

And beyond today's levels, the long targets remain, the ones that give the whole thesis its shape.

Ethereum

The thesis's long targets, not today's prices

Ethereum stays, like Bitcoin, in an accumulation zone: below 2,000 dollars.

But the interesting part of my thesis sits much further out in time, not at today's level.

I see an expansion well beyond today's levels, in two waves: the first toward 2028, the second toward 2029-2032.

Big expectations.

Stated as such, unconservative, exactly how I labeled them myself.

A direction for 2028 and 2032, not a price for this week.

They need to be read correctly: reference points for the coming years, part of a wider thesis about what an outperforming cycle could look like, not levels to trade now.

In my view, Ethereum needs to lead the altcoin outperformance against Bitcoin, precisely because it has stayed so far behind during this atypical cycle.

Long targetsI see a significant expansion for Ethereum, in two waves, toward 2028 and then 2029-2032. Long-term theses, not today's prices.

Ethereum, since 2023, log scale. Stays below 2,000 dollars, an accumulation zone. The thesis's long targets remain a direction, not today's prices.

Above every window and every target, one thing matters for you: how you position.

How we're positioned

That is the framework. The part that matters for you is how we sit inside it.

We do not position on one coin or one signal.

We position on the big picture: four signs tracked in parallel, plus the discipline of entering early and taking profit early on part of the position.

On Bitcoin and Ethereum, sizing stays in steps, below the already-known levels, keeping ammunition for lower zones if they show up.

On select altcoins, like LINK, we treat a return to the old buy zone as a re-accumulation opportunity, not a panic signal.

On MicroStrategy, the leveraged piece comes with smaller sizing and strict invalidation, exactly because it amplifies in either direction.

And on the underlying thesis, the Altcoin Supercycle, we do not draw conclusions early.

We treat it as a hypothesis confirmed, point by point, so far, not as a certainty.

Conclusions

One thread remains. This cycle looks like no other.

Four signs that should have already shown up are still missing, and altcoins have stayed far behind Bitcoin since the accumulation began.

LINK shows what that discipline looks like in practice: bought low, partly sold high, re-accumulated low again.

Bitcoin and Ethereum stay on the same accumulation lines from February, and MicroStrategy got a new allocation in the 80-90 zone.

Above all, structure decides. Not one coin or one week.

I have a hypothesis, I wait for confirmation, I move in steps, with a clear invalidation. The rest is cycle noise.

What to watch this week

TOTAL3 against Bitcoin: does the gap start closing, or stay just as wide? That is where the first real sign of change shows up.
The copper-gold ratio: does the recent turn continue, or fade? It is the macro signal behind the entire thesis.

The Cycle That Looks Nothing Like the Ones Before It

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