I went short on the S&P

The Liquidity Map · Stocks report

I went short on the S&P

On 17 August I said, with my usual sense of humor, that I'm selling everything, even the house. Joke aside: I went short through a leveraged ETF, with a track record I show on screen myself, targets reached in February, in July, and now.

August 27, 2026 · 6 min read

Key takeaways

On 17 August I said, with my usual sense of humor, that I'm selling everything, even the house, to go short. Joke aside: the money comes from cash I already had ready, through a 3-4x leveraged ETF on the S&P.
I show a track record I wrote myself: targets from February (6,100-6,400) and July (7,400-7,600) reached in turn, and now the 7,700-7,800 zone, where we are today.
I'm not necessarily targeting 10%. I'm targeting a window of weakness toward September-October, with first levels at 3% and 5% discount, then aggressive buying.
The S&P is at 7,653 today, only 1.9% below the 13 August high. The correction I'm targeting hasn't happened yet.
SpaceX stays under 140, and MicroStrategy climbed another 20% in five days, still tracking Bitcoin, not the 86-94 zone.

I say, with my usual sense of humor, that I'm selling everything, even the house.

Joke aside: I went short on the S&P, through a leveraged ETF, with money I already had ready.

Not on crypto, I clarified that on Monday.

And the reason it's worth attention isn't just the position, it's what I show behind it.

Definition

Leveraged ETF

A fund that multiplies an index's daily move, usually 2-3 times, in whichever direction the investor picks. A 3x leveraged short ETF on the S&P gains roughly 3% when the index loses 1% in a day. The multiplier resets daily, so over longer periods the result drifts from a simple multiple of the index's move. A tool for short-term conviction, not for holding for years.

The short

I go short, show why

I went short on the S&P, through a 3-4x leveraged ETF, with money I already had ready.

Not through individual stocks.

Before you jump on me in the comments, here's exactly why I believe this: my own targets, one after another.

In February I wrote a target for the S&P: 6,100-6,400.

In July, another: 7,400-7,600.

Now: 7,700-7,800. I got here, showing the old posts on screen so you can see it.

The last part checks out directly on the chart: the 13 August high of 7,799 confirms the zone exactly.

7,700-7,800The zone I've been targeting for the S&P since July, reached on 13 August at 7,799.

My new target is lower, not higher.

The target

Not 10%, a window of weakness

I'm not necessarily targeting 10%. I'm targeting a window of weakness toward September-October.

10-11% is the scenario, not a fixed number.

Today we're at 7,653. Only 1.9% below the high. The first levels I'm watching are closer than that.

From the 7,799 high, the first level is a 3% discount, toward 7,565.

The second, toward 5%, around 7,409.

Only past those does the 10-11% zone come into play, toward 6,940-7,020.

How far the correction goes depends on the macro picture, not just the chart. I wrote about this same window of weakness in the 29 July macro report. If macro doesn't confirm, the bigger discount may not come.

After the correction, I buy stocks aggressively.

The reason for the split: I think the mega-caps (Apple, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) still have a weak window ahead, while Bitcoin and crypto signaled the risk first, months ago.

This isn't a truth carved in stone. It's my position, with the targets that got me here.

7,653 → 7,565 → 7,409The S&P today versus the first two discount levels, 3% and 5% below the 7,799 high.

S&P 500, the last six weeks. The lower zone is the window of weakness I've been targeting since 17 August.

As long as no level confirms, the other levels being watched stay unchanged.

SpaceX

Still under 140

SpaceX fell to 134, from 140 last week.

A third straight week under the 140 line.

Nothing new got decided. It just spent another week on the same side of the line.

It stays the same area from last week's report, without a clear change in direction.

140 → 134SpaceX: last week's close versus today, -4.0%, still under the 140 line.

SpaceX, the last six weeks. The line stays a magnet, not a clean threshold.

MicroStrategy, on the other hand, kept last week's move going.

MicroStrategy

Still a Bitcoin proxy

MicroStrategy climbed from 104 to 125 in five days.

From the 93 low on 18 August, +35.3%.

Bitcoin rose 14.5% over the same window. MicroStrategy moved with it, not with the 86-94 zone.

The 86-94 zone stays the one from the 13 August report, further away now, not closer.

The correlation to Bitcoin, fact-checked last week, confirms itself again, with bigger numbers.

+20.1%How much MicroStrategy rose versus last week's report, while Bitcoin rose 14.5% over the same window.

Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, indexed to 100 on 19 August. They move together.

Three levels, and the most important thing this week isn't any of them, it's my new position.

How we're positioned

We didn't change the stock allocation this week.

A 10-11% correction on the S&P, if it confirms, is a better buying opportunity than today's level, not a reason to panic.

The 86-94 zone on MicroStrategy stays the one we're watching, no matter how far away it looks right now.

Long term, the horizon stays the same: I expect the S&P above 10,000-11,000 dollars toward 2028.

Conclusions

I went short on the S&P, with a track record I show myself, targeting a window of weakness toward September-October, not necessarily 10%.

The S&P is only 1.9% below the high today, so the targeted correction hasn't confirmed yet.

SpaceX stays under 140, a third week in a row.

MicroStrategy climbed another 20%, still tracking Bitcoin, not the 86-94 zone.

What to watch this week

Does the S&P fall toward 6,940-7,020 by October, or does it hold 7,400-7,700?
Does SpaceX settle clearly above or below 140?

I went short on the S&P

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