Bitcoin is correcting, altcoins aren't making new lows

The Liquidity Map · Crypto report

Bitcoin is correcting, altcoins aren't making new lows

In October 2025, altcoins absorbed an aggressive wave of liquidations while Bitcoin barely moved.

Now it's the reverse: Bitcoin is correcting, and altcoins are holding the October level.

That's the kind of shift worth tracking, not one I can explain away neatly, especially with September coming up.

August 31, 2026 · 9 min read

Key takeaways

Since October 2025, Bitcoin and altcoins have behaved the opposite of the rest of the year: back then altcoins fell hard, Bitcoin barely at all.
Now it's flipped: Bitcoin is correcting, while altcoins are holding the exact October level, no new lows.
The test is simple: if altcoins lose the October level while Bitcoin keeps weakening, the read falls apart.
LINK already hit the 0.618-0.786 retracement zone in December 2024, at $29.29, no new ATH. Halfcoin season, in the technical sense, already happened, it's not coming.
The Fed's balance sheet stopped shrinking on 3 December 2025 and is up 3.4% since, exactly the liquidity excess I'm tracking.
The last quarter of 2025 was the weakest I've seen in a bull market year: Ethereum down 31.8%, Bitcoin down 26.2%.
Since 2014, October has been positive for Bitcoin in 9 of 12 years. Last year was one of the three exceptions, -7.7%.
Bitcoin is at 78,666 dollars today, 2% below the past few weeks' high. Ethereum, at 2,470, 1.8% below its own.

In October 2025, something broke from the usual pattern.

Altcoins took an aggressive wave of liquidations, Bitcoin barely any.

Now, a few months out, the behavior has flipped: Bitcoin is correcting, altcoins are standing still.

That matters more than any thesis written in advance, mine included.

And on top of all that comes September, the month that's historically decided direction, even though last year broke that pattern too.

Definition

Leverage flush

The moment borrowed positions (leverage) get forcibly liquidated, in a cascade, as price falls and brokers automatically close positions that no longer have cover. It clears the system of forced sellers, but painfully, with fast and deep drops. After a full flush, fewer sellers remain who can still force the price down.

What changed

October's roles have flipped

Since 10 October 2025, altcoins took an aggressive wave of liquidations.

Bitcoin barely moved back then.

The leverage in the altcoin market got flushed out hard, with prices going much lower than a normal correction would justify.

Now I see the reverse: Bitcoin is correcting, while altcoins are holding the exact October level, no new lows.

I don't know for sure why. Maybe there aren't many sellers left, maybe whales are buying, maybe it's just a pause before Bitcoin's next move.

All three are possible explanations, and I don't want to just pick the one that fits my thesis.

What matters is the test, not my favorite explanation: if altcoins lose the October level while Bitcoin keeps weakening, this read falls apart.

Until that's settled, I'm keeping the focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum, with small positions in a few projects accumulated since 2024, like LINK and CRV.

78,666 → -2.0%Bitcoin today, in dollars, and how far it is below the past few weeks' high.

Bitcoin and Ethereum, the last six weeks. The rally came after 18 August, now both are easing slightly off the high.

This rotation ties back to an older pattern I've tracked for a couple of years now.

Halfcoin season

It already happened, in 2024

Halfcoin season has a precise technical meaning for me: a 0.618-0.786 retracement (log scale), measured from the 2021 high to the 2022 low, on major altcoins, without a new ATH.

On LINK, that zone sits around 21-32 dollars.

LINK hit $29.29 in December 2024, right inside the 0.618-0.786 zone. No new ATH. Exactly the pattern I was tracking.

This isn't something about to happen, it already happened, almost two years ago.

Since then, price fell back to $11.50, below the whole zone.

It's not just LINK. On OTHERS, the altcoin market cap excluding the top 10, price clearly entered the 0.618-0.786 zone twice, in March 2024 and January 2025, also with no new ATH.

The Bitcoin-TOTAL3 gap above points the same direction: the move was real, it just didn't carry altcoins any further from there.

LINK tracks the average altcoin performance fairly closely, so I extend the same logic above the old high. Not as a price call, as a marker: 1.23 around $92, 1.4 toward $140, 1.618 toward $235.

$21-32The 0.618-0.786 retracement zone on LINK, reached in December 2024 at $29.29, no new ATH.

LINK, log scale. The 0.618-0.786 zone was reached in December 2024, plus the projection toward 1.23-1.618, dashed.

OTHERS, with the 2021 high and 2022 low. The 0.618-0.786 zone was reached twice since 2024, no new ATH.

The backdrop behind this move is a quarter I hadn't seen before.

The backdrop

Q4 2025 was the first negative one in a bull market

The last quarter of 2025 landed where, historically, it doesn't.

Ethereum fell 31.8%. Bitcoin, 26.2%.

The first negative fourth quarter I've seen in a bull market year.

The four technical signs that showed this coming still hold, find them there.

A Q4 this weak doesn't prove anything on its own about what comes next. It proves my read on the hard part of the cycle actually happened, not that the good part follows automatically.

I'll own my miss here too. I expected Q4 2025 to stay positive, like every cycle before it. It didn't.

That's exactly why I took profit early on part of my positions, before I knew for sure how the quarter would end. I'd rather be wrong early and small than late and big.

-31.8%How much Ethereum fell in the last quarter of 2025, the weakest Q4 in a bull market year.

Q4 isn't the only seasonal pattern worth checking right now.

The window

October is positive most of the time, not always

August was, again, a month without real volatility.

Since 2014, Bitcoin has had twelve Octobers. Nine were positive, three negative.

The best October, +47% in 2017. The most recent, last year, -7.7%, the third time in twelve years the pattern broke.

It's not a fixed rule, it's a probability, roughly three in four years toward positive.

A flat August says nothing certain about September or October, in either direction, only about history.

What I'm actually watching: does the current range break in the first weeks of September, like it did most years, or do we stay in it longer, like last year.

9 of 12How many Octobers were positive for Bitcoin since 2014. The most recent exception, 2025, -7.7%.

Bitcoin's October return since 2014. Negative in three of twelve years.

None of these patterns change what I'm doing now, only what I'm watching. There's one thread left I haven't touched, the most important one.

What's coming

The liquidity excess already showing up

The Fed's balance sheet stopped shrinking on 3 December 2025.

It's grown steadily since, without a clear pause.

Since the December low, the Fed's balance sheet is up 3.4%. Not a promise, already on the chart.

That doesn't mean crypto prices rally automatically tomorrow. Liquidity reaches markets with a lag, not instantly.

But it's exactly the kind of backdrop I look for before a real halfcoin season: more money in the system, not less.

I'm putting it next to the Bitcoin-TOTAL3 gap above, not as separate proof, as part of the same picture.

+3.4%How much the Fed's balance sheet has grown since the 3 December 2025 low.

The Fed's balance sheet, the last 12 months. It stopped shrinking on 3 December 2025 and has grown since.

None of these patterns change what I'm doing now, only what I'm watching.

How we're positioned

We haven't changed the allocation. Bitcoin and Ethereum stay the majority of the portfolio.

A few smaller projects, accumulated since 2024, stay small positions, not the main focus.

We're not adding new capital until the test above is settled, altcoins losing or holding the October level.

If the range breaks in September, like the last two years, I'd rather react then than guess the direction now.

Conclusions

The relative behavior between Bitcoin and altcoins flipped since October, and that matters more than any single quarter's numbers.

The October level is the test: altcoins losing it while Bitcoin keeps weakening would invalidate this read, not just scratch it.

LINK already hit the 0.618-0.786 zone in 2024, no new ATH, and the Fed's balance sheet has grown steadily since the December low.

October is positive most years, 9 of 12, but not always, as 2025 showed.

As long as the October level holds, the question stays who moves first.

What to watch this week

Do altcoins lose the October level while Bitcoin keeps weakening? If so, the read above falls apart.
Does Bitcoin leave the range and build a new structure, or does it keep correcting?
Does the current range break in the first weeks of September, like most years, or do we hold the flatter 2025 pattern?

Bitcoin is correcting, altcoins aren't making new lows

What you're about to read is the framework

Key takeaways

Definition

October's roles have flipped

It already happened, in 2024

Q4 2025 was the first negative one in a bull market

October is positive most of the time, not always

The liquidity excess already showing up

How we're positioned

Conclusions

You now have the framework

Bitcoin is correcting, altcoins aren't making new lows

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