A good company is not a good buy

The Liquidity Map · Stock market report

A good company is not a good buy

SpaceX listed, pumped, then fell below its listing price. That is exactly where people want to buy, and exactly where they get it wrong. On how to buy a listing without getting burned.

July 23, 2026 · 8 min read

Key takeaways

A good company is not automatically a good buy. SpaceX pumped and dumped and sits below its listing price. The story matters less than the timing and the price.
Almost every listing drops hard after the IPO, at 3, 6, even 12 months. Early on, the best thing statistically is to do nothing. The turtle method, patience.
Coinbase listed right at the crypto market top and fell almost 90%. An excellent company, at the wrong time. It only recovered after more than a year.
Figma, listed a year ago, is at under a fifth of its price, but it just made its first higher low. A listing's structure only changes after about 12 months.
You do not buy the story, you buy the structure. Hypothesis, patience, invalidation, plan. The stock market moves slower than crypto and gives you time to see the turn.

SpaceX listed, pumped, then fell. Elon Musk is no longer a trillionaire, and the price is below where it listed. This is exactly where people feel it is time to buy. This is exactly the trap.

It is not about SpaceX itself. It is about a rule that repeats at every listing: a good company is not a good buy. What matters is not how big the company will be, but at what price and in what moment you enter.

Definition

IPO (public listing)

The moment a private company goes public and its shares start trading. It is also the moment of peak enthusiasm, which is why the price often makes a top followed by a long correction. A good IPO does not mean a good buy at any price.

The rule

The story is not enough

A company can be extraordinary and, at the same time, a bad buy. The difference is not in the company, it is in the price and the moment. At a listing, enthusiasm is at its peak, so the price makes a top, and after it often comes a correction that lasts many months.

That is why, at the start, the best thing statistically is to do nothing. You watch. The turtle method, Warren Buffett's patience. The market is not rational, it is psychological, driven by herd behavior. Math only gives you a sense of reason, not certainty.

You buy the structure, not the story. The story is already in the price at listing.

Do not rush. You saw this in crypto too: in 2022 nobody wanted Bitcoin at 20,000, everyone waited for 12,000. Whoever waited for the perfect bottom never bought, then bought at 3x off the bottom, out of fear.

The rule is simple and applies the same in stocks: you have a hypothesis about the company, then you wait for the price to confirm the structure. Without confirmation, you do not buy with all your money. You always have an invalidation, a place where you admit you were wrong.

nothingThe best thing to do at the start of a listing, statistically. You wait for structure, you do not buy on enthusiasm. Patience is the position.

It is not a theory. Look at what Coinbase did after its listing.

Coinbase

The good company, at the wrong time

Coinbase is a solid company. But it listed in April 2021, right at the crypto market top. Whoever bought at the listing, on enthusiasm, caught the exact top.

What followed: a drop of almost 90%, from over 320 dollars to around 33. The company stayed just as good, but buying at the listing was bad. It only recovered after more than a year, with a structure that turned, not overnight.

The same company. Only the moment of buying was wrong.

That is the difference between a good company and a good buy. You would not have won because you were right about the company. You would have lost because you bought on enthusiasm, at the wrong time.

Whoever had patience could buy lower, on a structure that confirmed, not out of fear. The absolute bottom at 33 was never the point; catching the way back up, with a plan, was.

-90%How much Coinbase fell after listing at the 2021 crypto top, from over 320 to around 33 dollars. A good company at the wrong time.

Coinbase, log scale. Listed in April 2021 right at the crypto market top, it fell almost 90%, then recovered after more than a year.

And if you want to see how a more recent listing reads, look at Figma.

Figma

The structure only changes after a year

Figma listed in July 2025. It followed the pattern exactly: almost a year of decline, lower and lower lows, from over 110 dollars down toward 17. Whoever bought at the listing sat a year in the red.

What changed now: after about twelve months, the price made its first higher low, not a lower one. It is the first time since listing that the structure shows it wants to turn. Not a certainty, but the first sign.

The first higher low after a year of decline. That is the signal, not the price of the day.

That is why time on the chart matters. A listing needs about 12 months of history before you can read it properly. Before that, you do not have structure, you have only enthusiasm and fear.

Not everything that falls recovers. What the company does and which niche it is in matters too. But the time pattern is clear: after a year, a listing starts telling you whether it wants to turn the trend.

~12 monthsHow long it usually takes for a listing to change its structure. Figma just made its first higher low, a year after the IPO.

Figma, since July 2025. A year of decline after listing, from over 110 to around 17 dollars, then the first higher low. The structure looks like it wants to turn.

With that pattern in mind, now look at the listing of the moment: SpaceX.

SpaceX

How SpaceX reads right now

Here we move to what the team thinks, not to a certainty. SpaceX could become the number one company in the world within ten years. It has scalability no one else has: Starlink, xAI, and the sky is no longer the limit, the way the phone is for Apple. That is the hypothesis, the underlying belief.

But belief is not a buy. SpaceX did the same pump and dump as any listing, and now it is below its entry price. The structure so far, a top, a fall, a consolidation that looked like a descending flag, brought the price right into the zone being watched.

It can be the biggest company in the world and, at the same time, a bad buy today.

The levels Cristian is watching are his own read, not advice. The point that matters is 112-120, the zone touched there. It decides whether the listing builds a base: as long as it holds, the price can settle, and an entry is built patiently, in steps.

If it loses the zone, the next area of interest drops toward 70-90. Since summer supports the market until around September, that scenario would fit the autumn better, not now. Like any listing, SpaceX needs six to twelve months of chart before it reads clearly, and until then patience is the only good position.

$112-120The zone that decides SpaceX's direction. As long as it holds, the price bases here. If it loses the zone, the next area of interest drops toward 70-90. Levels Cristian watches, not recommendations.

But SpaceX is just a listing. The broad market has its own clock, and right now the season matters.

Seasonality

The broad market has its own season

Beyond listings, the index has its own clock. Right now, summer seasonality is positive: on the S&P 500, on the Magnificent Seven, on the rest of the large companies. Summer tends to support the broad market, not weigh on it.

That positive window holds until around August, early September at the latest. After it, the picture changes, toward a more negative tone. It is the same risk window we point to for the autumn.

SpaceX is a listing story. The broad market has its own season, separate.

Do not confuse the two. SpaceX could rebound from here, it could stay in the zone for a while, but that is its IPO structure, not the direction of the broad market.

On the index, until around September the season is on your side. Beyond it, attention rises. The positioning accounts for both.

summer → SepThe window in which seasonality supports the broad market, the S&P and the Magnificent Seven. After early September, the tone is expected to turn more negative.

Above listings and above the season, one reflex decides whether you make money: how you position.

How we're positioned

That is the framework. The part that matters for you is how you sit at a listing.

We do not position on the story or on how big the company will be. We position on the structure on the chart and on a plan with invalidation. First the hypothesis, then the price confirmation, only then the buying, in steps.

The stock market is, in fact, the more stable part of the portfolio, the one that lets you sleep better at night than crypto. It moves slower, so it gives you time to see when a structure turns, without rushing.

Concretely, the core exposure sits in themes and in companies we have followed for a long time: miners and proxies that have already done large multiples, alongside names like Tesla or newer listings watched with patience. You do not buy at the listing, you buy when the structure confirms, even if that means a price 50% above the absolute bottom.

And if a listing falls further, it is not a problem. It means more history on the chart and a better read. You have the hypothesis, the levels, the invalidation. A fall is not a reason to fear, it is material for a better plan.

Conclusions

One reflex remains: in the stock market, a good company is not a good buy. The moment and the price decide, not the story.

Almost every listing collapses first, then changes its structure after about 12 months. Coinbase fell 90% and recovered. Figma just made its first higher low. SpaceX needs time on the chart before a decision.

Short term, you do not buy on enthusiasm. Long term, you stay on the side of the one with a plan and patience, not the one chasing the story of the day. The rest is noise.

What to watch this week

A new listing: has a year passed since the IPO? Without history, you have no structure, only enthusiasm and fear.
The structure: has it made its first higher low, or is it still making lower lows? That is where the turn is decided, not in the headline of the day.

A Good Company Isn’t Always a Good Buy

Keep reading

JPMorgan moves onto Ethereum while the funds sell

21 out of 21. What comes after the US midterms

Ichimoku flagged the altcoin reversal. 2027 is next