2027 is THE YEAR

The Liquidity Map · Stocks report

2027 is THE YEAR

The consensus now says October brings the bottom, and then comes the fear.

I'm looking further out, at two different cycles that both land on the same year.

The third presidential year, historically among the best for stocks, and the last year before the Shmita window.

Both point to 2027.

September 10, 2026 · 6 min read

Key takeaways

The consensus now is that October brings the market bottom, as loud and unanimous as "the ATH only comes after the halving" a few years back.
The third year of the US presidential cycle is historically among the best for stocks: since 1995, the average was plus 17%, versus plus 10% for all years.
Of eight year 3s since 1995, six were positive, and four exceeded plus 24%.
2027 is a year 3, because the presidential election was in November 2024.
On top of that, 2027 is the last year before the Shmita window, which starts on 20 September 2028.
The two clocks, the 4-year cycle and the 7-year cycle, both land on 2027.
The sample is small and stays history, not a guarantee. What would break it: if yields collapse earlier and move the calendar.

Everyone is looking at October.

The consensus is that October brings the bottom, then we'll see.

I've heard this consensus before, dressed up differently.

A few years back, everyone was sure the top only comes after the halving. Loud, unanimous, and wrong then.

I'm not looking at next month. I'm looking at two clocks that have been ticking for years, and both point to 2027.

Definition

The presidential cycle

The four-year pattern of the US stock market, tied to the presidential term. Year 1 is the one after the election, year 2 is the midterm year, year 3 is the one before the next election, and year 4 is the election year. Historically, year 3 has been the best of the four, because the administration has reasons to support the economy before the vote. 2027 is a year 3.

The consensus

Everyone looks at October, I look at 2027

The consensus now is simple and everywhere: October brings the bottom, then we'll see.

When everyone repeats the same thing, I'd rather look at something bigger than next month.

A few years back, everyone was sure the top only comes after the halving. Loud, unanimous, and wrong then.

I'm not saying October is definitely wrong. I'm saying it's short-term noise, and I'm looking at two long cycles.

Both land on the same year.

2027.

One is the US market's four-year cycle. The other is the seven-year cycle I wrote about at length here.

2027The year where the two cycles I track converge, the presidential cycle and the Shmita one.

Start with the four-year cycle, the easiest to check in the data.

The first clock

The third presidential year, historically among the best

The US stock market has an old four-year pattern, tied to the presidential term.

The two middle years, 2 and 4, are historically the weak ones. Year 3, the one before the election, is well above them.

The average for each year of the cycle shows the gap clearly.

Year 2 averaged plus 2%, year 4 plus 5%. Year 3, plus 17%.

I then took each year 3 on its own, since 1995.

Their average, plus 17%. The average of all years, plus 10%. Seven points more.

Of the eight year 3s, six were positive. Four exceeded plus 24%.

The weakest was 2015, at minus 1%. The best, 1995, at plus 34%.

2027 is a year 3, because the presidential election was in November 2024.

It's a small sample, eight years, and it stays history, not a guarantee. But it's a pattern with logic behind it: the administration has reasons to support the economy before the vote.

6 of 8How many of the eight year 3s since 1995 were positive for the S&P. Only 2015 closed down, and 2011 exactly flat.

The average S&P return per year of the presidential cycle, since 1994. The middle years, 2 and 4, are the weak ones. Year 3 is well above them.

Each year 3 on its own, since 1995. Six of eight green, only 2015 red, 2011 exactly flat. The average, plus 17%.

The same eight returns, as bars. The gold line is the average of all years, plus 10.3%. Five of eight clear it comfortably.

The second clock ticks more slowly, once every seven years.

The second clock

2027 is the last year before Shmita

The Shmita cycle is a seven-year clock, not a four-year one.

The next window starts on 20 September 2028 and runs to 9 September 2029.

That's where I see the big discount, the one I wrote about last week.

If the big discount comes in the 2028 Shmita window, then 2027 is the last full year before it.

You don't have to believe in Shmita as something religious. It's a seven-year clock that caught every big drawdown: dot-com in 2001, the 2008 crisis, then the 2015 and 2022 corrections.

The liquidity mechanism behind it I explained here, I won't repeat it.

What matters for 2027 is the position: right before the window, while liquidity is still in the market, not withdrawn.

That's how the two clocks line up. Year 3 says growth, the pre-Shmita position says it's the last wide window before the risk.

7 yearsHow long the Shmita cycle lasts. The previous windows caught dot-com, the 2008 crisis, then 2015 and 2022. The next one, 2028-2029.

The S&P 500 since 1995, log scale. The red bands are the Shmita windows, each on a drawdown: dot-com in 2001, the 2008 crisis, then 2015 and 2022. The dotted blue lines are the presidential year 3s. You can see how 2011 and 2015 fall right next to red, while 2027, the thick line, is the last clean year 3 before the next window.

The two clocks tie together even where the pattern seemed to break.

What would break it

The two weak year 3s each had an excuse

I'm not selling this as a certainty. It's history, not a law.

But look at the two year 3s that didn't work, 2011 and 2015.

2015 was weak because it was itself a Shmita year, the two clocks overlapped in the negative direction.

2011 was the recovery after the great financial crisis, a special year, not an ordinary year 3.

The two weak year 3s each had a specific reason. 2027 has none, it's shaping up very bullish and not turbulent at all.

It's still a small sample, eight years, and a calendar that can move.

That's what I wrote in March too: if yields collapse earlier, the big discount comes earlier, not in Shmita.

What I'm actually watching in 2027: whether the market keeps its growth structure, like the presidential cycle says, or whether cracks show up before the Shmita window.

Until then, the frame is clear. 2027 is the year of exposure, 2028 is the year of caution.

2028The year the plan shifts to caution, when the Shmita window begins.

Concretely, for how we're positioned, nothing changes today.

How we're positioned

Nothing changes today, the frame stays the one from last week.

2027 is, in my plan, the year of exposure, and 2028 the year I start being cautious.

I'm not buying anything today based on a year that's over a year away.

I keep it as a calendar marker, not an entry signal. When it gets close, you see it in the structure, not in a prophecy.

Conclusions

The consensus looks at October. I look at two clocks that have been ticking for years.

The third presidential year, historically among the best for stocks, lands on 2027.

The last year before the 2028-2029 Shmita window lands on 2027 too.

The sample is small and stays history, not a guarantee, and a calendar that moves would change the picture.

But as long as the two clocks point to the same year, 2027 is the year I'm watching.

What to watch this week

Does the market keep its growth structure in 2027, like the presidential cycle says?
Do cracks show up before September 2028, or does liquidity stay in the market until then?
Do yields collapse earlier, moving the calendar of the big discount ahead of Shmita?

2027 is THE YEAR

Keep reading

The consensus wants an October bottom. A green August says otherwise

The math for a rate cut

S&P is still king, while the rest of the world is already correcting.