The weak patch is over. New highs next?

The Liquidity Map · Stocks report

The weak patch is over. New highs next?

I said the S&P's weak window would bring 3%, maybe 5%.

It brought 3.9%, with the low on the exact day the Fed hiked rates.

Now I'm watching who pulls the market back up, and how I get in, without fixating on a date.

September 24, 2026 · 6 min read

Key takeaways

The S&P's weak window brought a 3.9% drop from peak to low, right inside the 3-5% range I was watching.
The low came on September 16, the day the Fed hiked rates. Since then, the S&P has recovered almost all of it.
It wasn't worse because there was no macro trigger. Yields are rising, so money isn't hiding in bonds.
The big companies are leading: the Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high on September 23, while the Russell 2000 is still 7.5% below its peak.
I'm not fixating on „October 1”. I'm waiting for a higher low, then a long on the S&P, with 8,000-8,100 as the year-end level I'm watching.
Fixed targets don't give you fixed entries. The money is made in the middle, not at the extremes.

On August 27 I drew a weakness window on the S&P.

From mid-August to early October, with the first threshold at 3% and the second at 5%.

I put it in the August 27 report, with numbers, so we could check it.

Today we check it.

Definition

Seasonal window

A stretch of the year when, historically, an index tends to do worse or better than the rest of the time. It isn't a fixed date and it isn't a promise. It's a period when I expect a certain behavior and get my capital ready. What price does around it matters more than the exact day it ends.

The check

I said 3%, maybe 5%. It was 3.9%

The S&P peaked on August 13, at 7,817 points.

The low came on September 16, at 7,508.

That's 3.9% below the peak. First threshold, hit. Second one, not.

The low of the window came on the exact day the Fed hiked rates. The market sold the news, then turned.

Since then, the S&P has climbed back to 7,706, just 1.4% below its high.

For a window everyone talked about like a crash, that's not much.

And that tells you something.

-3.9%The S&P's biggest drop during the weak window, from the 7,817 peak to the 7,508 low.

The S&P 500 since June. The shaded zone is the weak window, the dotted lines are the 3% and 5% thresholds below the peak.

The right question isn't why it fell. It's why it fell so little.

Why

No trigger, no crash

For a weak seasonal window to turn into a steep correction, it needs a macro reason.

That reason isn't there right now.

The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, and the 3-month yield is around 4%.

When yields rise, bonds are being sold. Money isn't looking for shelter, it's looking for returns. And it looks for them in stocks.

I explained at length why a higher rate doesn't scare me in the September 20 macro report.

Here I'll keep only what matters for stocks: the next Fed meetings are on October 28 and December 9.

If the 3-month yield climbs toward 4.2-4.3%, another hike becomes likely.

To me, that's confirmation, not an alarm.

5.1%The 10-year US Treasury yield on September 23.

If the market isn't falling, the question is who's pulling it up.

Who leads

The big names pull, the small ones wait

On September 23, the Nasdaq Composite hit a new all-time high.

The Nasdaq 100 is within 1% of its June high.

Nvidia and Apple are close to their highs, after holding up much better than the rest of the market during the weak window.

When the generals march ahead, the troops follow. The Mag7 take the S&P to new highs, and the rest comes after.

Meanwhile the Russell 2000, the small-company index, is still 7.5% below its August peak.

That doesn't change my thesis on mid and small caps.

Their moment is 2027, in a high-rate environment, as I wrote when I explained why 2027 is the year.

Right now it's the big names' turn.

One more thing I'm watching: in the last corrections, Bitcoin started falling before the S&P did.

In 2025, Bitcoin started falling in January, the S&P only in February.

If Bitcoin corrects toward November-December, the S&P could get a weak window right after it.

-7.5%How far the Russell 2000 is below its August peak, while the Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high.

The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Russell 2000, rebased to the August 13 peak. The big companies recovered, the small ones didn't.

From here, my plan is simple. It just isn't tied to a date.

The plan

I'm not watching the calendar, I'm watching the structure

The weak window closes, in theory, around early October.

I'm not waiting for October 1 to move.

Maybe there's one more scare, with a dip toward 7,500. Maybe it doesn't come at all.

What I want to see is a higher low. From there I go long the S&P, with 8,000-8,100 as the level I'm watching into year-end.

From the September 16 low, that's about 7-8%.

It's not much, but the risk is small, so I can run a bigger position than in crypto.

And here's the lesson I think matters most this week.

A lot of people write to me: „What if it never gets back to your price?”.

Fixed targets don't give you fixed entries.

You buy in pieces, you get an average, you sell in pieces.

You don't catch the exact bottom. You don't catch the top either.

The money is made in the middle.

8,000-8,100The S&P level I'm watching into year-end. A threshold I track, not a promise.

Here's what that looks like on my positions:

How we're positioned

On the S&P, the plan is a long after a higher low, with 8,000-8,100 as the year-end level we're watching.

On MicroStrategy we hold the breakout position. Into the 175-200 dollar zone we take profit on most of it, then wait to reaccumulate.

On MARA and CleanSpark we stay on spot accumulation, with part of the allocation already in, not all at a single price.

On FuelCell and PayPal the invalidation is in time, not in price. If they sit still too long, we cut half and move the capital into crypto.

On the miners that already pumped, we sold most of it.

On SpaceX nothing changed since last week's report: patience, no rush.

Conclusions

The weak window was small, as I expected.

There was no macro reason for it to be more.

The big companies are leading, the small ones get their turn later.

I'm waiting for a higher low, not a date on the calendar.

And I buy in the middle, not at the extremes.

What to watch this week

Does the S&P put in a higher low above 7,508, or is there one more scare toward 7,500?
Does the Nasdaq 100 break its June high of 30,762, pulling the S&P with it?
Does the 3-month yield climb toward 4.2-4.3% ahead of the October 28 Fed meeting?

The weak patch is over. New highs next?

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