New highs are in. Now comes the best part of the year

The Liquidity Map · Stock market report

New highs are in. Now comes the best part of the year

The weak window is over, and the S&P hit an all-time high on October 6th.

Historically, two or three weeks of the market going nowhere come next.

Then, from the last week of October, the best stretch of the year begins.

October 8th, 2026 · 6 min read

Key takeaways

The S&P? confirmed its higher low? at $7,617 on October 1st and hit an all-time high? on October 6th: $7,845 intraday, $7,819 at the close.
Since 1950, the stretch from September 30th to October 26th has averaged just +0.3% and finished higher in 57% of years.
From October 26th to December 31st, the S&P has averaged +3.9% and finished higher in 82% of years. It's the best window of the quarter.
Through Christmas, December 24th, the average is +3.4%, with 76% of years higher.
In midterm election years, the Q4 low came in October in 14 of 19 years. Five times, it was the low of the whole year.
2026 got ahead of itself: +2.2% in the first week, versus +0.7% on average. A pause toward October 26th would be normal.
I see dips before the end of October as opportunities. The marker stays at $8,000-8,100 into year-end.

New highs were the target. They came.

On October 6th, the S&P climbed to $7,845 and closed at $7,819, both records.

Now the calendar matters.

I took every year since 1950 and measured what the S&P does between September 30th and Christmas, day by day.

The result is a fairly clear map of the next 12 weeks.

Definition

Seasonality

A market's tendency to behave similarly at the same time of year, measured over many decades of data. It's not a rule that holds every year. It's a probability: it tells you in which stretches the market has historically had the wind at its back, and in which it went nowhere.

The check

A higher low, then an all-time high

On October 1st, I left you with three questions.

First: does the S&P turn up from above $7,508?

It turned the same day, from $7,617. The higher low is confirmed.

Five days later, the S&P broke its August 13th record, and the Nasdaq 100? also hit an all-time high, $31,361.

The target I was watching isn't a target anymore. It's a level we've hit.

Second: does the 10-year yield? break clearly above 5.3%?

Not yet. It's sitting right at the line, between 5.24% and 5.31%.

Third: does the 3-month yield? stay at 4.25% into the October 28th Fed? meeting?

It eased slightly, to 4.17-4.22%. The market is a little less sure about another rate hike.

$7,845The S&P's intraday all-time high on October 6th. Record close: $7,819.

With the high in, the question becomes what the market does over the next few weeks.

Seasonality

October goes nowhere, then the market climbs

I split the last quarter in two.

Between September 30th and October 26th, the S&P has gained just 0.3% on average.

It finished higher in 57% of years. Basically a coin flip.

From October 26th to December 31st, the S&P has averaged +3.9% and finished higher in 82% of years.

It's the best window of the whole quarter.

Through Christmas, December 24th, the average is +3.4%, with 76% of years higher.

The last week of December adds the rest.

This year, the market got ahead of itself: +2.2% in the first week of October, versus +0.7% on average.

That's why a pause toward October 26th wouldn't be a surprise. It would be normal.

82%How often the S&P has finished higher between October 26th and December 31st since 1950.

The S&P's average path from September 30th to December 31st, across all years since 1950 and in midterm election years. The vertical gold line is October 26th.

Share of years in which the S&P finished each window higher. The first three weeks of October are the weakest part of the quarter.

This year has one more detail, though: it's a midterm election year.

Midterms

In midterm years, the low comes in October

The congressional elections are on November 3rd.

I showed the average fourth quarter in these years last week. This time I looked at when the low came.

In 14 of the 19 midterm election years, the lowest point of Q4 came in October.

Five times, the October low was the low of the entire year. Every time, the quarter closed more than 4% higher.

The exceptions need saying too.

In 1978, 1994 and 2018, Q4 closed lower.

In 2018, the S&P fell 14%, and the low came on December 24th itself.

Seasonality tells you what's likely. It doesn't protect you from the year that breaks the pattern.

Year	Low of the year	Q4
1966	Oct 7	+4.9%
1974	Oct 3	+7.9%
1990	Oct 11	+7.9%
2002	Oct 9	+7.9%
2022	Oct 12	+7.1%

Midterm election years in which the S&P made its low for the whole year in October. Q4 is measured from the September 30th close to December 31st.

14 of 19Midterm election years in which the Q4 low came in October.

Put together, the calendar says the same thing as the chart.

The marker

Where the average takes us by year-end

The S&P is now around $7,800.

If I apply the historical average after October 26th, +3.9%, from here, I get to about $8,100.

That's right in the $8,000-8,100 zone I'm watching into year-end.

It's not a target. It's a marker: it shows where the market would land if this year looks like the average.

What the calendar changes is how I look at dips.

A drop in the next two or three weeks would come exactly when the market has historically gone nowhere.

And more often than not, the best part of the year followed.

$8,000-8,100My marker for the S&P at year-end. The historical average after October 26th points to the same zone.

That's also where the positioning starts.

How we're positioned

The all-time high is in, and the S&P plan stays the same: the $8,000-8,100 marker into year-end.

We use dips before October 26th to add, not to exit.

Over the longer run, every big dip gets bought until the end of 2027, with profits taken along the way.

FuelCell moved: +25% in three sessions, to $20.65 on October 6th. The plan doesn't change: we don't exit at a fixed price, but based on how long it stalls.

On MicroStrategy, MARA and CleanSpark, the plan is the same. They move with Bitcoin, and we keep accumulating? in stages.

On SpaceX and PayPal, nothing new.

Conclusions

The weak window is over, and the new highs came.

Historically, two or three weeks of pause come next.

Then, from October 26th, the best part of the year.

Dips until then are opportunities, not exit signals.

What to watch this week

Does the S&P stay above the $7,617 low through October 26th?
What does the Fed decide on October 28th, and how does the 3-month yield react?
Does the S&P start climbing after October 26th, as in 82% of years?

New highs are in. Now comes the best part of the year

Keep reading

The Olympics, the election and shmita all land in 2028

80 years of shmita, by the numbers

The weak window is over. Is the best quarter next?