Crypto momentum starting after 5 years

The Liquidity Map · Crypto report

Crypto momentum starting after 5 years

September 30th closes out a month that matters more than it seems.

If Bitcoin closes above $79,000, the road to $102-108k opens up.

And the cycle clock says this isn't 2022, however similar the charts look.

September 28th, 2026 · 7 min read

Key takeaways

All three checks from September 14th look good so far: Bitcoin held the $74-79k zone and is now around $84,000.
Ethereum has risen faster: +71% since the June close, versus +44% for Bitcoin.
A September close above $79,000 opens the way to $90-93k, then to the $102-108k zone, within the next one or two months.
Below $79,000, I expect four to six months of consolidation, possibly into spring.
This cycle, Bitcoin fell 54% in 268 days. In 2022, it fell 77% in 376 days. This is not the same market.
My estimate for a new all-time high is summer 2027, earlier than the 2022 fractal would suggest.
The accumulation zone was below $67,000 on Bitcoin and below $2,000 on Ethereum. Now I'm taking small profits, without leaving the market.

On September 14th I wrote that the bottom was already in and nobody saw it.

I left three questions to check back on.

Today we go through them, two days before the monthly close.

Because what October looks like depends on this close.

Definition

Monthly close

The price at which the month ends on the chart. Within the month, price can swing sharply in either direction. In the long run, what counts is where it closes. A level reclaimed or lost on the monthly close says more than ten days of panic or euphoria.

The check

Three questions, three good answers

First: would Bitcoin hold the $74-79k zone and close September above $72,000?

It held, then climbed. On September 21st it reached $87,364, and it's now around $84,000.

The monthly close is decided on the 30th, but at today's price the $72,000 line is far below.

Second: would June's $58,559 remain the lowest monthly close? It has.

The third was whether Ethereum would start outpacing Bitcoin. It has.

Since the June close, Ethereum is up 71%. Bitcoin, 44%.

The ETH/BTC ratio went from 0.027 to 0.032.

It's the first sign that liquidity is flowing into the rest of the market, not just into Bitcoin.

+71% / +44%How much Ethereum and Bitcoin have climbed since the June monthly close.

With those answered, one question remains, and it's the one that matters for October.

The close

Fall 2025, in reverse

Last year, October closed at $109,556, still above $102,000.

November closed at $90,394, below the line.

A cascade followed: $78,600 in January, $67,000 in February, $58,559 in June.

A level lost on the monthly close opened the road down. Now the opposite can happen.

August closed at $78,549, just under $79,000.

With a few days left in September, Bitcoin is around $84,000.

If September closes above $79,000, ideally above $83,000, the first step is $90-93k.

Then the $102-108k zone, possibly with a brief spike above it, over the next one or two months.

These are levels I'm watching, not guaranteed prices.

If it closes below $79,000, I expect four to six months of consolidation, possibly into March or April.

And if the $102-108k zone is reached too quickly, a longer consolidation between $79k and $108k will follow before the next leg up.

$79,000The monthly close level I'm watching for September. Above it, the road to $102-108k opens.

Bitcoin, monthly candles since January 2025. The red line marks the $79,000 level; the gold bands mark the $90-93k and $102-108k steps.

Plenty of people are looking at the same chart right now and seeing 2022. I see something else, and the day count shows it.

The clock

It isn't 2022. You can see it in the day count

In 2018, Bitcoin fell 84% in 363 days. It then took 732 days to reach a new high.

In 2022, it fell 77% in 376 days, then took 470 days to reach a new high.

This cycle, it fell 54%, from $126,198 to $57,748, in 268 days.

A smaller decline, in less time. The structure doesn't look like 2022's, and the fractal everyone is copying doesn't fit.

If you cut 100-120 days from the 470 it took last time, a new all-time high would come around summer 2027.

It's an estimate based on time, not a promise.

I explained it at length in a video on September 24th.

It also ties into the report where I explained why 2027 is THE year.

268 daysHow long this cycle's 54% decline lasted, versus 376 days and 77% in 2022.

How far Bitcoin fell below each cycle's top, by days since that top. This time it fell less and bottomed sooner.

If the clock runs faster, what altcoins do matters too.

Altcoins

This time they're not lagging

In 2023, many altcoins kept making new lows for almost a year after Bitcoin had turned.

I don't see that now.

Ethereum was the first to reach the $2,600-2,800 resistance, peaking at $2,805 on September 21st.

The signals I watch for the rest of the market all turned in the same window, between late 2025 and early 2026.

The Fed balance sheet bottomed in December 2025 and has been growing since.

The copper/gold ratio bottomed in February 2026 and has risen more than 40% since.

By my reading, OTHERS dominance has turned as well.

That's why I think altcoins will follow Bitcoin without a lag this time, though with deeper pullbacks whenever Bitcoin corrects.

The hard part will be psychology.

Plenty of people will sell around their entry price, just before the market moves higher.

I wrote about why the last altcoin season was only half a season last week.

no lagHow I expect altcoins to follow Bitcoin this cycle, unlike in 2023.

That also changes how I'm managing my positions right now.

How we're positioned

The accumulation zone was below $67,000 on Bitcoin and below $2,000 on Ethereum. That was the time to buy.

Now, with Bitcoin at $84,000, the focus shifts to taking small profits and rebalancing.

We don't sell everything and we don't leave the market. If you've kept some cash on the side, that's fine.

On big drops we add, without waiting for a fixed price. The more it drops, the more we add.

We don't rule out a correction later on, toward December, even back to $71,000.

Invalidation is still judged on monthly closes, not on one-day moves.

Conclusions

September closes on the 30th.

Above $79,000, October can bring $90-93k, then the $102-108k zone.

Below it, we'll need a few months of patience.

The cycle clock says we're not in 2022.

And altcoins aren't sitting on the sidelines anymore.

What to watch this week

Does Bitcoin close September above $79,000, ideally above $83,000?
Does it reach the $90-93k step in October, or stay in consolidation?
Does the ETH/BTC ratio keep climbing above 0.032?

Crypto momentum starting after 5 years

Keep reading

The weak patch is over. New highs next?

Halfcoin season was just the beginning

The Fed hiked rates. Here's why it doesn't scare me