Bitcoin already hit the bottom. Nobody sees it

The Liquidity Map · Crypto report

Bitcoin already hit the bottom. Nobody sees it

I think we've already seen the bottom for Bitcoin, somewhere over the summer.

A bottom that looks like none before it, which is exactly why so many keep missing it.

I've been accumulating since February, and I treat September's dips as discounts, not the start of a crash.

September 14, 2026 · 8 min read

Key takeaways

I strongly believe Bitcoin's market bottom is already in, somewhere over the summer, in the 57 to 59 thousand zone.
The data backs me up on the low: the lowest monthly close was June, at 58,559 dollars.
It's an atypical bottom. The old signals, Pi Cycle among them, didn't fire, not at the top and not down here.
My explanation: the cycle is maturing and front-running, meaning it prints both the top and the bottom earlier than before.
The real top of the last cycle was July 2025. What came after were deviations that fooled everyone.
From here, September's dips are for buying, not for running. Bitcoin now sits right in the zone I track, 74 to 79 thousand.
Money is most often lost not in the drop, but by selling too early and being forced to buy back higher.
My horizon is a cycle that peaks earlier, toward 2027, not toward 2029.

I'm going to say something that sounds premature. And I know it.

I think we've already seen the bottom for Bitcoin.

Not today, not this week. Somewhere over the summer, in the zone I've been repeating since February.

The problem is this bottom looks like none before it. That's why so many are still waiting for it.

Let me show you why I believe that, and why the old signals no longer help us see it.

Definition

Cycle front-run

The market „runs ahead” of the signals everyone was waiting for. When a pattern becomes too well known, too many anticipate it, and price moves earlier than it used to. That's how I explain why the cycle top came sooner, and why I believe the bottom was put in earlier than the crowd expected.

The bottom

I think we already saw it, over the summer

I've been repeating this since February: the 57 to 59 thousand zone was very close to the cycle bottom.

I didn't improvise it now that price is there. I said it when we were high up.

The data backs me up on the low.

Bitcoin's lowest monthly close was June, at 58,559 dollars. Exactly the zone I was calling the bottom.

Since then we've moved inside a range, with an aggressive bounce out of that low zone.

For me the bottom is confirmed. For the market, not yet, and that's exactly what makes it interesting.

Because this bottom resembles none before it.

$58,559Bitcoin's lowest monthly close this cycle, in June. Exactly the zone I was tracking as the bottom.

Bitcoin, monthly closes. The cycle low was June, at 58,559 dollars. The gold band is the 74 to 79 thousand accumulation zone, and the dashed line is the 80 thousand resistance above it.

To understand why few see it, we need to talk about the signals that went quiet this time.

The signals

Why Pi Cycle and the rest never rang

For years, the same signals marked every top and every bottom.

Pi Cycle is the best known. It caught the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops, almost to the day.

This time, at the last cycle top, it simply didn't fire.

If the signal didn't fire at the top, why would it fire at the bottom? It's fair to stop waiting on it in its old form.

My conclusion isn't that the signals broke. It's that the market caught on to them.

When too many watch the same pattern, price anticipates it. It moves earlier.

That's what I call a cycle front-run. It changes how we read both the top and the bottom.

0How many times Pi Cycle fired at the last cycle top, despite catching every major top before it.

Pi Cycle on Bitcoin. The 111-day average (gold) met the 350-day average times two (blue) right at the 2017 and 2021 tops, the red dots. At the 2025 top they never met.

If the cycle front-runs, then the last top also came earlier than the crowd thought.

The last top

It was July 2025, the rest were deviations

For me, the last real peak of the previous cycle was July 2025.

What followed, in August and October, weren't healthy new highs.

They were deviations, moves that pushed price higher just enough to catch people on the wrong foot.

The last consistent high was July 2025. The rest were traps, not continuation.

July 2025 was a peak month, followed by a long descent into 2026, and that shows clearly in the data.

The level I tracked as a line of defense in the fourth quarter was 102 thousand. Lost, it meant lower.

Once I accept the top came earlier, I have to move my expectations for the next cycle earlier too.

July 2025Where I place the last real peak of the previous cycle. What came after were moves that fooled the market, not healthy highs.

And if the bottom is in, the question isn't whether you get in, but how.

September

Discounts are for buying, not for running

Black Friday came to crypto. Except nobody's lining up excited to buy.

When the market drops, people look at charts with dread, not with any urge to buy.

I do the opposite. The zone I track on Bitcoin is 74 to 79 thousand. Right now we're right there.

Above it sits 80 thousand, the level Bitcoin still hasn't cleared. Below it, I accumulate.

You most often don't lose money in the drop. You lose it by selling too early and being forced to buy back higher.

I saw this month after month in 2023 and 2024: people who sold to catch a better price next month, and ended up buying back higher.

When I expect a drop and there's euphoria in the market, I hedge, I don't pile in blindly. A hedge, not a panic sell.

But spot, on the dips, I add. My marker for September is a close that holds above 72 thousand.

$74–79kThe zone on Bitcoin I track for accumulation in September. Today's price is right inside it.

Bitcoin's return in September, year by year. Red negative, blue positive. More often a weak month, exactly the month I look for discounts.

And it's not just Bitcoin, the rest of the portfolio has its own logic.

The rest

Ethereum and the big positions after it

I think Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin from here. It's got ahead of it what it missed this cycle: a real expansion.

After Bitcoin and Ethereum, my largest positions are Chainlink and CRV.

I've held Chainlink since 2022. For a long time it was my largest position after Bitcoin.

Bitcoin and Ethereum stay the core. Chainlink and CRV are the largest positions after them.

I trimmed about 10% of Chainlink and CRV on local top formations. Not to exit, but as discipline.

The difference between trimming a little into strength and selling everything out of fear is the difference between keeping your money and losing it.

Above them I'm watching a few names from the payments space, starting with XRP.

since 2022How long I've held Chainlink, one of my largest positions after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The ETH/BTC ratio. When it rises, Ethereum beats Bitcoin. This is where you see whether the outperformance thesis actually holds.

All of this leads somewhere, and it ends up higher than it looks right now.

The horizon

A cycle that peaks earlier, toward 2027

If the bottom is in and the cycle front-runs, then the next peak comes earlier too.

Not toward 2029, the way it “normally” would. Toward 2027.

And when we get there, I think we're talking about prices that look exaggerated today.

I'm not rooting for them. I just see where the math points.

I don't want those prices for how big they are. I want them because they tie into everything I've been tracking for two years.

I don't set the exact number in stone, I build it on Fibonacci extensions and adjust it along the way.

What matters isn't the target, it's the direction and the discipline you use to get there.

And the discipline starts now, in the month most people just want to run.

toward 2027Where I place the next cycle peak, earlier than the crowd would expect.

Concretely, here's how we're positioned from here.

How we're positioned

The broad framework stays the one from last week, with a single emphasis.

We accumulate spot on dips, we don't shuffle between positions out of fear.

The core stays Bitcoin and Ethereum, averaging into the 74 to 79 thousand zone, not catching the exact low.

We trim a little into local tops on Chainlink and CRV, as discipline, without leaving the positions.

We read invalidation on monthly closes, not on one-day swings. A sustained loss below June's low would change the picture.

Conclusions

I think the bottom is already in, even if it looks like none before it.

The old signals went quiet because the market caught on to them, not because they broke.

September's dips are discounts. Not the start of a crash.

The biggest risk isn't buying here. It's selling too early and buying back higher.

The direction, for me, leads higher, toward a peak earlier than the crowd believes.

What to watch this week

Does Bitcoin hold the 74 to 79 thousand zone and close September above 72 thousand?
Does June's low of 58,559, the lowest monthly close, hold, or is it tested again?
Does Ethereum start to outperform Bitcoin, a sign liquidity is entering the rest of the market?

Bitcoin already hit the bottom. Nobody sees it

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